TOURISM, TRAVEL & ECONOMY in the aftermath of September 11, 2001 (Part
C)
Tourists to the Rescue of a Wounded City - Janny Scott - NYTimes - Using events to rebuilt New york City's tourism industry.
Go to the Tourism pages Part A or Part B - or return to the Main Page
Subject: VISITOR ARRIVALS TO THAILAND IN SEPTEMBER AND
OCTOBER 2001
Date: Wed, 14 Nov 2001 10:24:13 +0000 (GMT)
From: TAT Newsroom <temp@cyberiaweb.com>
Bangkok, Thailand, November 14, 2001 -- According to information and tabulated by nationality, visitor arrivals at Bangkok airport totalled 491,186 in October 2001, a decline of 9.12% over October 2000. Visitors from major markets in October 2001 included East Asia (with total arrivals of 235,502, down 12.80% over October 2000), Europe (141,945 or up 0.47%), the Americas (41,292 or down 19.47%), South Asia (21,811 or down 22.26%), Oceania (28,944 or up 11.41%), Middle East (14,389 or up 14.49%) and Africa (7,303 or up 4.76%).
Also in October 2001, visitors from major contributing countries included Japan (56,115 or down 27.24%), China (43,849 or up 7.08%), the UK (40,323 or up 9.97%), Korea (32,897 or down 7.62%), the US (31,861 or down 21.63%), Taiwan (30,276 or down 12.04%), Germany (25,495 or up 4.43), Australia (23,778 or up 10.14%) and Malaysia (13,256 or down 20.06%). In September 2001, Thailand welcomed 729,141 international visitor arrivals (by country of residence and excluding overseas Thais), a slight decline of 0.81%. Details of major markets are as follows:
Visitors from East Asian totalled 463,230 in September 2001, a decline of 3.97% over September 2000. Major contributing markets included Japan (107,074 or down 5.33%), Malaysia (97,767 or up 3.13%), Taiwan (51,642 or down 23.88%), China (48,900 or down 3.51%) and Korea (35,170 or up 22.51%). European visitors totalled 137,434 in September 2001, an increase of 11.48% over September 2000. Two major markets were the UK (35,340 or up 7.65%) and Germany (25,032 or up 17.86%). Also in September 2001, visitors from the Americas totalled 32,864 (down 11.42% over September 2000), those from South Asia totalled 23,467 (down 21.11%), Oceania totalled 40,977 (up 8.16%), Middle East totalled 22,897 (up 30.39%) and Africa totalled 8,272 (up 14.97%).
TAT NEWS RELEASE - www.tourismthailand.org/newsroom
More Thailand Arrival Stats can be found here
World Tourism Organization Press Releases
THE MEASUREMENT OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF TOURISM IN THE WAKE OF 11 SEPTEMBER 2001: SOME COMMENTS
1.1 The world's biggest economies were already showing signs of a substantial slowdown in their general activity in the summer months. This downturn, broadly ascribed to weaker domestic demand, has caused international trade to fall to levels unheard of in recent years.
1.2 The climate of uncertainty triggered by the events of 11 September has deepened this downturn, which has now extended to the global economy.
1.3 While the United States of America has been particularly hard hit by the repercussions of the terrorist attacks, the loss of confidence and uncertainty that have now taken root in many other parts of the world will not disappear overnight.
1.4 In this type of situation, the first responsibility of international organizations, and intergovernmental institutions in particular, is clear: they must project a message of serenity in the face of events that are beyond the bounds of reason, events whose reality has clearly surpassed fiction.
1.5 WTO-OMT has responded by creating a Crisis Committee made up of 35 Members, including senior tourism officials from the countries most severely affected by the present situation, and representatives of the most relevant sub-sectors.
1.6 It is precisely in times of crises such as these that we clearly need to dispose of data that can be used to perform rigorous analyses of the impact of these types of events on tourism activity, as well as of the economic impact of a slowdown of tourism in the general economy.
1.7 In this sense, in its capacity of organization belonging to the United Nations system specialized in the field of tourism, WTO-OMT cannot brush aside the impacts of the 11 September attacks in the conceptual terms used by certain other institutions which identify tourism activity with foreign visitor arrivals, equate tourism with holidays, limit the sphere of tourism enterprises to hotel establishments, and base estimates of tourism expenditure solely on the travel item of the Balance of Payments.
1.8 Conversely, accurate measurements of these impacts require a clear understanding of such vital concepts as:
· the various forms of tourism: tourism associated with the residents of a given country (travel within the country being identified as domestic tourism as opposed to travel outside the country, identified as outbound tourism), and tourism associated with non-residents (whose arrivals in another country are defined as inbound tourism);
· the different types of visitors (overnight visitors -or tourists- as opposed to same-day visitors); in many countries, account should be taken both of the number of these two types of visitors and their corresponding expenditure levels;
· the broad range of tourism industries: in addition to the accommodation services provided by hotels, also passenger transport, car hire, etc. produce goods and services for visitors. An international classification of tourism characteristic industries and products has been drawn up with the aim of ensuring that analyses of the economic impacts of tourism are based on a shared definition of what is meant by "tourism".
1.9 It is precisely because of the complexity of the tourism sector that WTO-OMT has been going to such great lengths to provide the international community with a new perspective from which to analyse tourism and its economic impacts. In this context, the following points and initiatives should be highlighted:
· measurements of these economic impacts should not be based exclusively
on physical indicators (number of international visitor arrivals, hotel nights,
number of beds, etc.) but should also take account of monetary indicators;
· domestic tourism expenditure is highly relevant; therefore the weight
of tourism in a given country cannot always be measured solely in terms of the
number of international visitor arrivals;
· a survey of the tourism expenditure of non-residents has been developed
with the aim of providing national tourism administrations, central statistical
offices and central banks with a tool for monitoring expenditure and generating
data that can be used to meet their various requirements (in terms of designing
tourism marketing policies, comparing and/or estimating the travel and passenger
transport items of the Balance of Payments, etc.);
· the development of the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) for comparing
visitor consumption with the production associated with tourism industries constitutes
a particularly powerful framework of analysis for measuring these impacts;
· the pressing need for national tourism administrations to dispose of
the qualitative and quantitative indicators they require to evaluate tourism
both from a macroeconomic perspective and in terms of their principal tourism
markets and products, and to measure the efficiency of their promotional campaigns.
1.10 A great many countries have doubtless already noted a fall in the number of international visitor arrivals, a situation that is unlikely to improve in coming months.
1.11 However, it would be premature to assert that the general slowdown of tourism activity will follow a uniform pattern in the different world regions (insofar as not all tourism destinations have been equally affected), just as it would be hazardous to try and appraise the impacts on tourism of the new international scenario engendered by the events of 11 September insofar as it is difficult to predict possible shifts of tourism activity (e.g. whether cancellations of international travel bookings will ultimately benefit the home country or neighbouring countries). It is equally difficult to determine how these impacts on tourism will affect the overall economy and what share of the production of tourism-characteristic industries can or cannot be ascribed to visitor consumption, etc. The answers to most of these questions are still unknown to the vast majority of national tourism administrations.
1.12 Specialized bodies such as the OECD are predicting that economic recovery will take off in the second half of 2002 and consolidate in 2003, assuming that no new risk or military confrontation scenarios shock the economy and assuming that governments adopt prudent anti-cyclical policies.
1.13 What are the prospects for tourism activity? Would it be reasonable to forecast that the recovery of tourism activity in the destinations most severely affected by these events will be analogous to the recovery of GDP growth rates forecast by the OECD for the global economy in the second half of 2002?
1.14 Respecting the need for caution and granting that the present crisis is unprecedented, attention should nonetheless be drawn to the resilience of tourism in the face of adversity, as demonstrated by the limited impacts on the industry of events such as the Gulf war in 1991, the Kobe earthquake in 1995 and the terrorist attacks in Luxor in 1997.
1.15 With regard to the question concerning the prospects for the tourism industries,
we believe that they are definitely favourable, for two basic reasons:
· consumption represents a large fraction of GDP and its fluctuations
are proportionately smaller than actual GDP fluctuations. The tourism component
of consumption - which we call visitor consumption - has an income elasticity
of over 1 (i.e. demand for tourism is particularly sensitive to consumers' income
variations), which does not hold true for other types of products such as so-called
«normal» or «prime-necessity» products (where this elasticity
is positive - between 0 and 1 - or negative - less than 1, respectively).
· events such as those mentioned above or the recent terrorist attacks
in the United States of America spark temporary variations of income levels
that are unlikely to translate into relevant changes in consumer patterns.Empirical
evidence indicates that of the three elements that determine individual consumption
levels (permanent or long-term income, transitory income and wealth), the first
is most relevant in terms of explaining variations in consumption.
1.16 This argument is particularly valid in developed economies (i.e. the big tourism-generating countries) and is underpinned by economic theories which hold that consumer decisions generally extend beyond the short-term future because for most individuals, consumption remains stable throughout the various phases of the life cycle - insofar as the more people earn, the more they save with the aim of preventing future imbalances between income and consumption levels. This is also particularly relevant to products such as tourism which is characterized by high income elasticity.
1.17 For all the above reasons, WTO-OMT once again wishes to reiterate the need for steps to be taken to enhance measurements of the economic significance of tourism. As stated in the report of the WTO-OMT Secretary-General, Mr. Francesco Frangialli, to the General Assembly held on 24-29 September in Seoul, Republic of Korea,
«the task of ensuring that the economic impact of tourism is properly understood in terms of consumption, the creation of value added, investment, contribution to the gross domestic product, foreign trade and job creation can be identified as one of the top priorities for stakeholders in world tourism. And for a simple reason: this subject - the tourism satellite account - will determine the efficient treatment of all the other subjects».
Subject: Destinations & Crisis Management
Date: Sun, 18 Nov 2001 08:30:09 -1000
From: Ivan <polunin@2001.es>
To: trinet-l@hawaii.edu
Dear Trinetters
Is Crisis Management (CM) an art, a science or just plain seat-of-the-pants guesswork? The varied responses to Sept 11 suggest that CM practitioners think it is all of these!
Here (off the top of my head) are a few destinations that have suffered tourism
crises in recent years:
Sri Lanka - airport attack
Britain - foot & mouth
Miami - hire car muggings/murders
Cuba - hurricanes
India - the Plague
Bali - tourist food poisoning
Egypt - Luxor killings
New York - you name it!
Whether a negative event at a tourist destination qualifies as a crisis needing
management depends almost entirely on the media coverage of the 'crisis' in
generating destinations. Perception is reality. A crisis only exists if it is
news ... big news. Arguably 'wait and see' is good CM practice - or is it? Lay
low and wait for bigger news to push aside your 'crisis' could be good CM practice
- or is it? A come clean, pro-active response is often mooted as the best approach
- or is it? It can result additional media attention, 'talking up' the crisis
and greater negative perception.
So what is the best CM practice? Does one:
Deny - "there is no crisis, it's all media hype"
Downplay - "yes there's a crisis but life goes on as normal"
Declare - "yes we acknowledge the crisis. Here are the details. This is
what we are doing"
Despair - "help!"
Trinetters - I need your comments, observations and research references. Do you know of any books on Destination CM? Who are the gurus? I would welcome answers to these questions (are there others I should I be asking?):
Q1. Is there a set of basic CM principles or ground rules that all Destinations /Tourist Offices should follow when faced with a crisis?
Q2. Does the PR industry have a 'Best Practices' creed for crisis hit tourist destinations?
Q3. What research is there - if any - on effective CM for destinations? Any case studies?
Many thanks for reading this far....
Ivan Polunin
Editor Eclipse
Mallorca, Spain
TRAVEL WEEKLY DAILY BULLETIN *Articles on TWcrossroads.com *
(Webmaster's note: I only started subscribing to this list in early December 2001. To see relavant articles prior to that date, go to the TWcrossroads.com News webpage.)
Subject: Impact of September 11 tragedy on Pakistani tourism
industry/News Item
Date: Tue, 30 Oct 2001 17:36:46 +0500
From: ESP <eco.tourism@COMSATS.NET.PK>
To: GREEN-TRAVEL@PEACH.EASE.LSOFT.COM
Ecotourism Society Pakistan (ESP) has finalised 10-points report on negative impacts on tourism due to September 11 tragedy and constant bombing on Afghanistan. Some features of reports are as follows:
1. Withdrawal of tourist groups from North of Pakistan was 100 percent after
September.
2. There is 98 percent cancellations in hotels and PTDC and other motels in
North are receiving less than 2 percent guests as domestic tourism has also
crashed due to crahsed in business and economy.
3. There are no bookings for Winter season in North.
4. Porters, guides, drivers and other small stakeholders of tourism industry
including daily wages workers are directly hit by this situation because they
do not enjoy any social security and depend upon only their daily and monthly
wages which are of course closed down due to no businesss in the field.
5. ESP has failed to find any group, NGO, public or private support for these
poor stakeholders. No NGO, public, Private organisation has announced any financial
or social support for porters, guides, daily wages workers, drivers or other
poor people working in Tourism Indistry.
6. There is no announcement from World Tourism Organisation (WTO) how to deal
with this situation and no guidelines have been determined by WTO or any other
international bodies to save the rights of poor stakeholders.
7. Domestic tourism is popular in Swat and Kaghan Valleys where reports are
indicating only 5 percent bookings for the month of November 2001. The percentage
of booking was 31 last year during last November.
8. Withdrawal of Researchers of different organisations from North has caused
a serious setup back to on-going research.
9. There is a immediate need of National Strategy to deal with this grave situation
but government is dealing with more serious problems.
10. This situation has indicated need of small cooperatives and social security organisations in tourism industry.
Tourism, Terrorism and Tomorrow - publication from the Worldwatch Institute (US$5) - the website also contains a 1 hour press breifing about tourism and terrorism.
Subject: New Study on Global Tourism; Original Message ----- From: "Dick Bell" <dbell@worldwatch.org> To: <wwnews@crest.org> Sent: Monday, December 17, 2001 4:01 PM Subject: WWN: New Study on Global Tourism
NEWS FROM THE WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE
New Worldwatch Paper on Tourism Released Worldwatch has released a new
study on the effects of international tourism, "Traveling Light:
New Paths for International Tourism" by Staff Researcher Lisa Mastny.
Tourism was the world's fastest growing industry before September 11, generating
significant impacts on cultures and environments around the world. The current
slowdown is an opportunity to move towards sustainable tourism.
1.Purchasing Information
2. Press Release
3. Fact Sheet on Tourism
**************************************
1. Purchasing Information: "Traveling Light" costs $5.00 and can be
purchased through the Worldwatch website: www.worldwatch.org or by calling 1-800-555-2028
in the U.S. and 1-301-567-9522 from anywhere else.
**************************************
2. Press Release
TOURISM, TERRORISM, AND TOMORROW
As fewer overseas travelers pack their bags this holiday season, millions of tourism industry workers worldwide are losing their jobs. Before September 11th, travel and tourism was the world's largest industry, accounting for one in every 12 jobs. When the massive $3.6 trillion industry almost ground to a halt after the terrorist attacks, the ripple effects extended well beyond the United States, exposing the vulnerability of countries too dependent on international tourism, reports the Worldwatch Institute, a Washington, DC-based environmental research organization.
"The aftermath of September 11 has shown us how important travel and tourism are to the global economy, but also how over-dependence on tourism can devastate lives and derail economies," says Worldwatch Staff Researcher Lisa Mastny, author of "Traveling Light: New Paths for International Tourism." "Now, more than ever, it is time to put issues of sustainability at the top of the global tourism agenda."
In the paper, Mastny discusses ways that countries can redirect their tourism activities to make them more socially beneficial and environmentally sound. She highlights a wide range of positive efforts underway to minimize tourism's negative impacts and to boost its benefits for local communities and the environment.
Revenues from tourism have been especially important in the developing world, which stands to suffer severe economic losses from the slowdown. "Tourism is the only economic sector where developing countries consistently run a trade surplus," says Mastny. "It's especially significant in poorer countries that have few other options: for the world's 49 so-called least developed countries, tourism is the second largest source of foreign exchange after oil."
Businesses in the developing world are particularly worried about the sharp drop in bookings as the winter high season nears:
* India and Nepal, which are close to Afghanistan, are already feeling the effects of a drop in demand. * In October, resort company Club Méditerranée was forced to close 15 of its holiday villages in the Caribbean, Central America, the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. * Operators in Costa Rica report a 30 percent decline in bookings from last year. * International tourism is now expected to grow by only 1.5 to 2 percent in 2001, compared with the robust 7.4 percent rise in 2000. * The International Labour Organization estimates that as many as 9 million of the world's 200 million hotel and tourism workers could lose their jobs in the wake of the attacks. Nearly three quarters of these positions are outside the United States and Europe, many in countries with weak social safety nets.
Even in the best of times, the consequences of tourism's rapid growth have not always been positive. On average, as much as 50 percent of tourism earnings ultimately "leak" out of the developing world-in the form of profits earned by foreign-owned businesses, promotional spending abroad, or payments for imported goods and labor. And uncontrolled tourism development-on mountaintops, along coastlines, or in remote jungle areas-stresses many fragile ecosystems and cultures.
"Tourism does not have to have such negative impacts," Mastny says. "Many governments and businesses, local communities, and tourists themselves are already paying more attention to the social, cultural, and environmental impacts of their activities."
Such changes can save money as well. Some hotels, tour operators, and other businesses are taking formal steps to restructure their management and operations along environmental lines-often at considerable cost savings. Between 1988 and 1995, for example, Inter-Continental Hotels reduced its overall energy costs by 27 percent, saving $3.7 million in 1995 alone. The Green Hotels Association reports that hotels that have adopted such conservation measures and green practices have been better able to weather the revenue loss, falling occupancies, and higher energy costs in the aftermath of the September attacks.
In the paper, Mastny also examines the role of ecotourism, or responsible tourism in natural settings, in protecting and enhancing environmentally fragile areas. If done well, ecotourism can bring benefits to both local communities and conservation. The ecotourism sector had been growing even faster than the tourism industry as a whole (20% vs. 7%). But Mastny cautions that some businesses are "greenwashing" their operations, slapping on the ecotourism label without actually changing their practices. -END-
*************************************
3. Fact Sheet
QUICK FACTS: Worldwatch Paper 159 Traveling Light
*************************************************************
Worldwatch News is maintained by the Worldwatch Institute for subscribers interested
in keeping up-to-date on global environmental issues. Postings to this list
will include news releases and notification of new publications. The Worldwatch
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end To contact Worldwatch directly, send email to <worldwatch@worldwatch.org>
*************************************************************
Tourists to the Rescue of a Wounded City
By JANNY SCOTT (NYT)
- Using events to rebuilt New york City's tourism industry
March 24, 2002
The destruction of the World Trade Center has emerged as a powerful selling point for New York City, invoked again and again over the last six months to make the case that big events like the Super Bowl, the Grammy Awards ceremony and a proposed joint meeting of Congress all belong in New York.
It was used to attract the World Economic Forum to Manhattan. Coca-Cola Company shareholders will meet here next month for the first time. On Tuesday, a major national technology association announced that it would hold its annual awards ceremony here in July. The events of Sept. 11 have inspired trial lawyers, travel agents, television station managers and others to plan conventions and conferences in New York.
The argument goes like this: Bringing an event like the Super Bowl to New York
City will stimulate tourism and help the city and the country recover; it will
be an expression of solidarity with New Yorkers; it will strike a blow against
terrorism; it will enable visitors to share in the
New York spirit.
The case being made is striking in its appeal, in part, to sympathy for the purpose of drumming up tourist business. It appears to link notions of patriotism and civic duty to things like hotel bookings. It centers for once not on the glamour of New York, but on its most tragic moment.
"They are using the tragedy implicitly and explicitly to lure people," said Marshall Blonsky, who teaches semiotics at New York University and Parsons School of Design. "And I think that it's going to work. Especially inasmuch as there hasn't been a second strike."
It is not easy to find a clear precedent. After the 1995 bombing of the Alfred
P. Murrah building in Oklahoma City, tourism officials there said they went
out of their way not to appear to market or promote what had happened, out of
sensitivity to the feelings of survivors and victims'
families.
But that bombing did not have the economic impact of the trade center attack.
In New York City, where the tourism and convention industry is said to have
supported 282,000 jobs in 2000, tourism officials estimate that several billion
dollars in revenues and 30,000 industry jobs have
been lost.
The most visible spokesman for bringing big events to New York has been Charles E. Schumer, the state's senior senator, who has made the argument for New York in pursuit of the Super Bowl, the World Economic Forum, the Grammys and the annual meeting of the Democratic Policy Committee.
"I talk to them about our need for their help, in our time of need,"
Senator Schumer said, describing his conversations with various organizers.
"The whole world wants to show that they are at one with New York. This
is a tangible way to do it. With benefits for the visitees and
the visitors."
United States Representative Vito J. Fossella, who represents Staten Island, said he had repeatedly urged House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert to consider holding a joint meeting of Congress in New York as a gesture of support.
This month, Mr. Hastert announced that he favored the idea. On Friday, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg tentatively set the date for Sept. 6.
NYC & Company, the city's convention and visitors bureau, has put together a spreadsheet to track what one bureau official called the "new patriotic meetings" - at last count, two dozen conventions and conferences said to have been channeled to New York City at least in part because of Sept. 11.
The list includes a meeting of the United States Conference of Mayors held this past January; and gatherings of magazine publishers, engineers, pharmaceutical company executives, trial lawyers, a labor union, meeting planners and others, all of whom tourism officials say opted spontaneously to meet in New York.
On Tuesday, the World Technology Network announced that it would hold its annual
World Technology Summit and World Technology Awards here. The event, which will
take place in July at the Millennium Broadway hotel and the United Nations,
is expected to bring hundreds of visitors to New York. "New York was the
obvious choice for holding this year's summit, for many reasons," said
James Clark, the
founder and chairman of the World Technology Network, based in London.
William A. Maloney, executive vice president and chief operating officer of the American Society of Travel Agents, said his board voted unanimously in late September to move the society's meeting to New York from Seville, Spain. The meeting, held in November, drew 4,000 people.
"New York is a metaphor for our industry," Mr. Maloney said, listing
the curiously commingled motives behind the choice. "It was the symbolism
of helping our compatriots in New York, but also the symbolism that travel agents
must lead the way to travel. Travel is an inherent right, and we
cannot let it be taken away."
NYC & Company actively pursued another event, the International Pow Wow, a gigantic international travel-industry trade show organized by the Travel Industry Association of America. Though host cities are usually picked years in advance, the city that was chosen for 2005, Houston, dropped out last fall.
"We immediately called T.I.A.," Cristyne L. Nicholas, president of NYC & Company, recalled. "We said we really want to be in the running for Pow Wow for 2005. We said we think that this would help with the recovery."
The 2005 Pow Wow is now set for New York.
One of the biggest events that some New Yorkers have their eye on is the 2012 Summer Olympics; New York is one of four American cities competing to be the host city. But Sept. 11 and its aftermath have not generally been raised as an argument in New York's favor.
"We have specifically not invoked it with respect to the Olympics," said Daniel Doctoroff, the deputy mayor for economic development, who previously led the group in charge of the bid. "In fact, we have expressly avoided even the appearance that we are attempting to benefit in any way from Sept. 11."
Asked to elaborate, he said, "Because somehow we think that to court favor based on a tragedy is wrong." Specifically he said, it would be inconsistent with the spirit of the Olympic Games.
Some have questioned the validity of the 9/11 argument in the case of other major events. Mike Bayham, a councilman in St. Bernard Parish, a suburb of New Orleans, strongly objected to Senator Schumer's push to bring the Super Bowl to New York last January when plans to hold it in New Orleans briefly hit a snag.
Tourism is suffering everywhere, Mr. Bayham said recently; cities like New Orleans also need help. He argued that the country had "really stepped up to the plate already" for New York.
"New York was where the people died, but everyone felt the impact of 9/11," he said.
But others say the 9/11 argument is simply smart marketing. "I don't think
there is anything inherently immoral or unethical about what they're doing,"
said Lauren Schlau, who owns a Los Angeles consulting firm that does market
research for convention and visitors bureaus and state
travel offices. "Frankly, I think it's savvy."
She added: "I think it strikes a chord with a lot of people. I think people
in the United States feel they want to help New York. Not out of guilt and not
out of obligation, but out of maybe conviction, too, that if they help New York
now and something else happens somewhere
else, there may be a similar response. So it's an investment."
How long the argument will work remains to be seen. Representative Fossella suggested it would certainly remain appropriate within the first year after the attack.
Meryl Mayo, whose husband, Robert, died in the trade center attack, said she
had mixed feelings about many of the ways in which Sept. 11 was being used.
She said families were having difficulty healing because Sept. 11 was ubiquitous
and inescapable; yet it is also crucial to keep it in the
public eye.
"I think New York City is the center of the world," said Mrs. Mayo, who said she personally knows many people who have lost jobs in the last six months. "I think it has to get back on its feet. And if it has to be on the back of 9/11, then so be it."
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/24/nyregion/24YORK.html?ex=1018113878&ei=1&en=80a5d8b76aa0ed37
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Copyright 2002 The New York Times Company
Not the Best of Times, but Manhattan Hotels See Encouraging
Signs
By JAYSON BLAIR (NYT)
Despite dire predictions after the World Trade Center attack, the frenzied atmosphere
at many hotels in Manhattan is giving hope to those in the industry.
March 28, 2002
At the W Hotel in Times Square one recent evening, Oksana Baiul, the Olympic figure-skating champion from Ukraine, went slinking through the lobby in a short black dress and a pearl necklace. Nearby, John Corbett of HBO's "Sex and the City" was standing close to a real estate developer who was hobknobbing with Elizabeth Jagger, Bridget Hall and other supermodels.
The hotel staff, decked out in designer clothes, served Champagne and hors d'oeuvres.
It did not look like the worst of times.
But few are ready to call it a full rebound. After all, the number of hotel rooms occupied in Manhattan was at its lowest level in seven years this January. But, despite dire predictions after the World Trade Center attack, the frenzied atmosphere at the W Times Square and many other hotels in Manhattan is giving hope to those in the industry.
The average occupancy rate in February 2002, at 74 percent, was only 1 percentage point lower than it was in February 2001, according to HotelRevMax, a research firm. Other analysts have slightly less rosy numbers, but none suggest the doom-and-gloom scenarios of late last year predicting that occupancy would be down 10 to 15 percentage points.
Analysts and hoteliers say that the increase in business has come at a cost and that the packed hotel rooms mask the lost jobs, deep discounts on room rates and other tough decisions hoteliers have had to make since the attack - not to mention the coming challenges.
"We are not out of the woods yet," said Guy Hensley, a vice president at Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide, which operates the W Times Square. The hotel opened in December and already surprised analysts with a 55 percent occupancy rate in February.
In this environment, it seems the hotels that are a part of larger chains, like the W Hotel in Times Square, are doing much better than their competitors. In bad economic times, industry analysts say, large chains can consolidate certain functions among their hotels to cut costs and use their combined sales resources to grab business from competitors.
At Grand Hospitality, the owner of the SoHo Grand and the TriBeCa Grand, the owner, Emmanuel Stern, has been able to cut costs by combining corporate sales, reservations, human resources and catering services without eliminating any guest perks. At the Ritz Carlton in Battery Park, which opened in the fall, officials have been able to use its national reservation system to get corporate business travel that seems to be eluding many of its other competitors near ground zero.
At Starwood, which operates five W's in Manhattan and six other hotels, Barry S. Sternlicht, the chairman and chief executive, has personally overseen moves and consolidations intended to cut costs and drive up occupancy without making severe layoffs.
Starwood was able to persuade Lehman Brothers, which was displaced from its
offices in the World Financial Center, to take over the entire 655-room Sheraton
Manhattan on Seventh Avenue. The 11 Starwood hotels in Manhattan have begun
to share human resources and reservations operations. The W Tuscany on East
39th Street even closed for six weeks. As workers took a six-week layoff, Starwood
retained
many guests by directing them to other W Hotels, where occupancy rates were
boosted by the move.
"For us, New York appears to be leading the nation out of the recovery, and there is no question that the scale of the company has helped in the downturn," said Mr. Sternlicht, whose company operates more than 730 hotels in 80 countries.
The W Times Square also hired 400 employees, many of them people who were laid off after the terrorist attack.
According to John Fox, a hotel industry analyst at PFK Consulting, the new demand induced by rate cuts has led to the rehiring of 3,400 of the estimated 5,000 workers laid off after the attack.
Still, hotels have cut rates so deeply to entice guests that there have been sharp drops in revenues. The average room rate in February 2002 was $202.82 compared with $232.04 last year, according HotelRevMax, and is not expected to recover any time soon.
The cuts are having the most impact on high-end hotels carrying a lot of debt. At the Bryant Park Hotel, for example, room rates are nowhere near the $550 that it was charging when it opened on Valentine's Day in 2001. Guests can get a room for $199 a night and in some cases less.
"Room rates are basically reset," said Sean Hennessey, director of
the hospitality and leisure consulting practice at PriceWaterHouseCoopers. "They
are not going to bounce back for a couple of reasons, and those whose business
models rely on high room rates to pay off debt and for
amenities could be in trouble."
Among the reasons for concern is many companies worked out annual corporate deals in September and October and the city has had trouble attracting international tourists, who tend to spend more money.
In February, the city's hotels lost an estimated $8 million despite being virtually as full as they were during February 2002.
Mr. Hennessey said that he was troubled by several factors in the coming months and years.
New hotel construction combined with the reopening of establishments shuttered after the attack will add more than 2,200 rooms to the market by November, when a Westin Hotel is scheduled to open at West 43rd Street and Eighth Avenue. Without added demand, this new supply could weaken occupancy rates at other hotels, Mr. Hennessey said.
There is also some concern, particularly downtown, that an estimated to 2 to 2.5 percent of the rooms occupied are being used by Federal Emergency Management Agency workers, displaced residents, volunteers and others connected to the attacks. "There is definitely going to be a be a vacuum at hotels south of 24th Street," Mr. Hennessey added.
Ian Schrager, chairman and chief executive of the Ian Schrager Hotels, which operates the Royalton and the Paramount, said he was most concerned about the fact that room rates had been slashed so deeply and that they were not likely to recover soon. Now he believes that the fear has subsided. "It was unfortunate that everyone had to follow the pack," he said. "Right now, if we had not cut room rates, we would have high occupancy and be able to bring in a lot more money," he said.
But most hotel operators believe that cutting the room rates was the right way to go. They credit the city's convention and visitors bureau, NYC & Company, with pushing discount packages to the regional travelers within 500 miles of the city. The hoteliers also said that the warm weather and lack of snow or rain helped improve the numbers in January and February, two of the toughest months for tourism even in good economic times.
The president of NYC & Company, Cristyne L. Nicholas, who took a three-day trip to Berlin this weekend to promote the city, said she was focusing on getting back international tourists, who tend to spend more money than domestic visitors. Ms. Nicholas cautioned that there was not much money left to spend on tourism-related advertising.
"Tourism is rebounding quicker than what was forecasted," Ms. Nicholas said. "But we still have a long way to go, and it is not an entirely rosy picture."
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/28/nyregion/28HOTE.html?ex=1018951463&ei=1&en=a0512ee6f253e949
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U.S. Issues Warning on Possible Easter Attack for 4 Italian
Cities
By MELINDA HENNEBERGER (NYTimes)
Americans in four Italian cities could be pinpointed by terrorists on Easter
Sunday, according to an unusually specific warning issued by U.S. officials.
March 28, 2002
ROME, March 27 - Americans in four Italian cities could be pinpointed by terrorists on Easter Sunday, according to an unusually specific warning issued by United States officials today.
"We have credible reports that extremists are planning additional terrorist attacks against U.S. interests and that a possible threat exists to U.S. citizens in the cities of Venice, Florence, Milan and Verona on Easter Sunday, March 31," the State Department spokesman, Richard A. Boucher, said in Washington. He added that Americans in Italy would be wise to remain vigilant "for a few days beyond that."
Neither United States nor Italian officials provided details about the threat. They gave no information to clarify whether it came from Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda network or some other group.
The assassination of a government labor adviser on March 19 was linked by some Italian officials to a new generation of the Red Brigades, a terrorist organization that was active in Italy in the 1970's. The killing raised fears of a new wave of domestic terrorism here.
American officials in Italy said they were aware of the harm the alert might
do to the tourism industry. But they said they had no choice but to publicize
a threat that they deemed credible, based on information developed in the last
few days.
Italian officials did not hide their dismay over the warning. Tourism here was just beginning to recover from the effects of the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States.
"We have only one little concept to communicate," said Roberto Arditti, a spokesman for the interior ministry. Although the information came from Italian investigators, he said, "there's zero confirmation about this possibility."
Asked if that meant that Italian officials were disputing that there was a serious threat, he said, "It's impossible to know what will happen."
The Interior Ministry, however, put out a statement saying that security would be stepped up in all four cities for Easter, particularly in and near airports, train stations, ports and historic monuments.
A State Department announcement suggested that Americans should "increase
their security awareness and avoid large
crowds," essentially urging Americans in the four cities to stay indoors.
"These groups do not distinguish between official and civilian targets," the statement said. "Civilian targets may include facilities where Americans and the general public are usually known to congregate or visit, such as clubs, restaurants, places of worship, schools or outdoor recreation events."
Speaking in Washington, Secretary of State Colin Powell made this appeal: "For those who are traveling in Italy - in specific places that were mentioned - be prudent, be careful. Enjoy yourselves but display some caution in your activities, where you are. Travel together."
After the March 17 attack on a Christian church near the United States Embassy in Islamabad, Pakistan, the State Department issued a worldwide warning that extremists were planning terrorist actions against American interests. Two Americans and three other people died in the Islamabad attack.
United States interests in Italy have received specific threats, both before and after Sept. 11. In January 2001, the embassy here closed for a day because of the threat of an attack. Last month, Italian police arrested nine Moroccans suspected of plotting a bio-terror attack on the embassy.
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