TOURISM, TRAVEL & ECONOMY in the aftermath of September 11, 2001 (Part
B)
Ask Not What . . .
- on consumerism and sacrificing for our country - Thomas L Friedman - The
New York Times - December 9, 2001
Go to the Tourism pages Part A or Part C - or return to the Main Page
|
From SeeAmerica.org - part of TIA's "Freedom to Travel" campaign to counter the decline in travel after September 11, 2001. |
Several Press Releases on the Economic Impact of Sept. 11th
from:
WTTC - World Travel and
Tourism Council, and
TRB -Travel Business Roundtable
Subject: WTTC's press release on economic impact of Sept 11
Date: Mon, 24 Sep 2001 16:38:16 +0000
From: Scott Wayne <scottwayne@yahoo.com>
To: economic-impact-tourism@yahoogroups.com
Decrease in tourism demand signals the loss of millions of jobs worldwide.
The World Travel & Tourism Council has clarified its earlier press release which reported a forecast of 30% decrease in travel and tourism demand worldwide resulting in the loss of 26.4 million jobs across the globe in the entire travel and tourism industry - including airlines, hotels, tour operators, car rental and credit card companies.
Although a number of travel and tourism companies have reported a decrease in demand of 30% and more following the terrorist attacks, the long-term outlook for travel and tourism demand is expected to slowly brighten as consumer confidence about safety and security recover. Annualised over the next twelve months, the decrease of travel and tourism demand is currently expected to total 10-20% in the United States and less in the rest of the world, including Europe and Asia.
Based on a standardised hypothetical case scenario of 10% decrease in travel and tourism demand, the World Travel & Tourism Council has reported the following possible impact on national, regional and world employment and GDP. A 10% decrease in travel and tourism demand would result in the following:
United Kingdom: Decrease of 1.9% of total GDP for the UK economy and the loss
of 190,000 jobs.
European Union: Decrease of 1.9% of total GDP for the EU economy and the loss
of 1.2 million jobs.
United States: Decrease of 1.8% of total GDP for the US economy and the loss
of 1.1 million jobs.
World: Decrease of 1.7% of total GDP for the world economy and the loss of 8.8
million jobs.
While some initiatives are already taking place, the Council is calling upon
governments worldwide to fully support the industry's efforts to recover from
the impact of the terrorist attacks in the United States.
"In exceptional times we need exceptional measures," states Jean-Claude
Baumgarten, President for the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC). "The
entire industry has been effected by this tragedy - from the service industry
to manufacturing."
The Council calls for a government partnership with industry to help restore consumer confidence within travel and tourism, one of the biggest industries in the world. WTTC figures show the travel and tourism industry generates US$4,494 billion in economic activity; approximately 11% to GDP worldwide; and employs 8.2% of total world employment (207,062,000 jobs worldwide).
In the aftermath of the September 11 incident, airline, tour operator, car
rental and hotel bookings have dropped substantially putting the future of many
companies at stake. The impact on the travel and tourism industry has caused
a knock-on effect in other sectors within the service industry and manufacturing
industry.
WTTC urges governments worldwide to recognise the serious implications to the
overall economy and implement policies with the private sector that will aid
the industry's immediate survival and long term recovery.
Subject: [economic-impact-tourism] Latest US report from WTTC partner Travel
Business Roundtable
Date: Fri, 05 Oct 2001 14:12:06 +0000
To: economic-impact-tourism@yahoogroups.com
Dear Colleagues: Below are the latest numbers that the TBR reported to its
members yesterday.
Best regards, Scott Wayne
The Effects of the September 11 Attacks On the U.S. Travel and Tourism Industry
Ø Analysts project tourism in the U.S. could drop by nearly one-third in the coming months.
Ø Hundreds of thousands of U.S. airline, hotel and other travel industry workers have lost their jobs.
Ø U.S. airlines are flying with 40 percent to 50 percent of their seats empty, even after drastically reducing their scheduled flights.
Ø Across the U.S., 25 % of conventions and meetings scheduled before the end of 2001 have been cancelled.
Ø Per-room revenue is projected to decline between 3.5 percent and 5 percent this year - the largest decrease in room revenue in 33 years.
Ø Hotels could lose $2 billion in room revenue and other associated income. Specifically, cities around the country are already experiencing tremendous losses:
* In New York, the overall occupancy rate is at 45 percent, where it would normally be at 75 percent, and 3,000 employees have been laid off;
*In Washington, D.C., room occupancy plummeted from 80 percent to less than 20 percent, and experts say more than 50,000 hospitality jobs in the region are at risk;
*In Central Florida, many hotels are at less than 25 percent capacity, where they would normally more than 50 percent full;
*In Seattle, where downtown hotels are typically 90 percent occupied in September, occupancy is as low as 30 percent; and
*In Hawaii, where many hotels normally have 80 to 85 percent occupancy, many occupancy rates are at 40 percent or lower.
Ø Travel agencies are losing an estimated $51 million per day in sales.
Ø Corporate travel is projected to fall by 50 percent by January 2002.
Ø One estimate states our economy will decrease by 1.8 percent of total GDP, directly resulting in a loss of 1.1 million U.S. jobs.
Subject: [economic-impact-tourism]
TBR Survey results: Nearly 25 Percent Uncertain About Upcoming Travel Plans
Date: Wed, 10 Oct 2001 02:27:08 +0000
From: Scott Wayne <scottwayne@yahoo.com>
To: economic-impact-tourism@yahoogroups.com
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - October 9, 2001
DESPITE INCREASED SECURITY, TRAVELERS REMAIN WARY
-----
Nearly 25 Percent Uncertain About Upcoming Travel Plans
Washington, D.C. - Even before Sunday's retaliatory strikes in Afghanistan, a quarter of all travelers had cancelled, put on hold or remained uncertain about their next planned trip. Lingering concern about security, the threat of continued military action and the economic impact related to the September 11 terrorist attacks were cited by travelers who changed their plans, according to a comprehensive nationwide survey of business and leisure travelers released today by the Travel Business Roundtable (TBR).
The survey, conducted last week, found travelers remained uneasy:
· One in five of those surveyed said they would discourage close relatives
or friends from traveling during the holidays.
· Thirty percent of travelers who changed travel routines say it will
take six months to a year to resume pre-attack travel patterns.
· One in four travelers said that new security measures were insufficient
to restore their confidence in travel to the way it was before the September
11 attacks.
· Seventy-nine percent say another terrorist attack in the U.S. is likely.
"Even before Sunday's news and the threats of retaliation against the U.S., there was a clear sense of unease permeating the travel and tourism industry," said Jonathan Tisch, chairman of TBR and chairman and CEO of Loews Hotels. "Fewer people are traveling and they are spending less resulting in hundreds of thousands of direct job losses, tens of millions of dollars in lost tax receipts for local and state governments, and billions of dollars in lost revenues for the industry."
Last week, the Travel Business Roundtable called on lawmakers to take immediate action to help the travel and tourism industry recover from the devastating economic fallout that followed the events of September 11.
In a letter distributed to all members of Congress, Tisch said that the terrorist attacks have crippled the industry as public confidence in the safety of travel has been severely undermined. "Hard data as well as anecdotal experience suggest that meetings are being postponed, all but critical corporate travel is being delayed, and individuals are canceling or postponing personal travel plans within the U.S. and abroad," wrote Tisch. "These disturbing trends are all occurring against the backdrop of an overall U.S. economy that is in decline."
According to Tisch, lawmakers should not be lulled into a false sense of security by the fact that some Americans are restoring their travel habits. Most who are traveling now are doing so with deeply discounted airfares and hotel room rates-in most cases at 50 percent or more below the normal fare or rate.
Among the TBR survey's findings:
· The travel business rebound will be slow. Thirty percent who have changed travel habits say it will take from six months to one year to get back to the same level of out-of-town travel that they did prior to September 11.
· Holiday travel is likely to suffer. One in five (20 percent) say they would discourage close family or friends from traveling during the holidays, due to security concerns. Nearly three in ten (29%) who had been planning to fly over the Thanksgiving holiday have changed their mind, preferring to stay at home or use ground transportation, if available.
· Recent actions taken by the government and airlines to increase safety have failed to convince all travelers. 37 percent of those surveyed say it is the same or less safe to fly now, compared to before September 11. Those who say they're traveling less now than before September 11 are more than twice as likely than the population as a whole to say that flying is unsafe.
· Increased security measures will still not get some consumers traveling again. When asked if it were shown that there were dramatically increased security measures put in place to prevent security threats while traveling, 64 percent of the survey's business travelers who say they are traveling less than before the events of September 11 said it would not cause them to restore travel plans.
· Most travelers do not plan to avoid New York City or Washington, D.C. When asked if they would avoid visits to New York City or Washington, D.C. for reasons of personal safety, 71 percent and 70 percent of those now traveling less than they did before September 11 said "no" respectively.
· Travelers expect another attack. 79 percent of travelers think another terrorist attack is "likely" in the foreseeable future. And while a majority (60 percent) said it is more important, in the long run, to return to a normal level of travel activity, that feeling is shared by only 40 percent of those traveling less since September 11, with 58 percent of them preferring to scale back their activities.· The government and travel and tourism industry share responsibility to restore consumer confidence. Respondents were split nearly evenly when asked whose actions would be more important to facilitate a return to more normal travel and leisure activities. Forty-six percent indicated the government, in its efforts to hunt down the remaining perpetrators of the attacks, while 42 percent cited the transportation and travel industries, in their efforts to show that measures have been taken to ensure safety.
· The travel industry's response to the September 11 attacks receives high marks from consumers. Over three-quarters (76 percent) of those surveyed indicated that the travel industry responded with efforts to restore the confidence of the traveling public "better than expected."
The TBR survey was conducted by Penn, Schoen, Berland and Associates and Burson-Marsteller on October 2 and 3. The survey had a sample size of 800 respondents (margin-of-error +/- 3.5%). The sample was broken in two - 400 respondents fit the profile of business travelers, 400 fit the profile of leisure travelers. The survey will be updated regularly to track changing traveler attitudes in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks.
As the nation's second largest employer, with a pre-September 11 workforce of more than 17 million people, travel and tourism was the third largest U.S. retail industry, with $582 billion in revenue in 2000. Travel and tourism has emerged as America's second largest services export, responsible for a $17 billion trade surplus, and generated nearly $100 billion in federal, state and local tax revenues last year.
However, Tisch noted that over the past three weeks, more than 130,000 airline and aircraft-manufacturing employees have lost their jobs. He added that the hotel industry has also announced significant layoffs and has projected 2001 losses to be nearly $2 billion.
"The immediate effects the September 11 attacks had on the travel and tourism industry are clear, but the continued economic fallout is still being assessed and quantified at the federal, state and local levels," said Tisch. "Executives in the housing, retail or auto manufacturing industries would be panicked by survey results showing this kind of consumer reluctance."
The Travel Business Roundtable is a CEO-based organization representing all
sectors of the travel and tourism industry, including major airlines, hotels
and lodging, restaurants, retail outlets, travel management companies, car rental
companies, financial services institutions and others. The roster of members
reflects the interdependence of all sectors of the travel and tourism industry
and demonstrates the need to work collaboratively, especially during these challenging
times.
### Editor's Note: Additional survey data can be found on TBR's website at www.tbr.org
Subject: [economic-impact-tourism] Travel Business Roundtable Index of Leading
Economic Indicators
Date: Wed, 14 Nov 2001 00:42:02 +0000
From: Scott Wayne <scottwayne@yahoo.com>
THE TBR INDEX OF LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS FELL 8.4 PERCENT IN SEPTEMBER
- THE LARGEST SINGLE MONTHLY DECLINE RECORDED
WASHINGTON, D.C. - November 13, 2001
In the clearest indication yet of the devastating impact the events of September 11 have had on the travel and tourism industry, the Travel Business Roundtable/World Travel and Tourism Council (TBR/WTTC) Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined at a seasonally adjusted rate of 8.4 percent in the month of September alone. That makes it by far the most significant monthly drop in an industry that has experienced tremendous losses as a result of the attacks and their aftermath.
In addition, a new study just released estimates that $76.7 billion in traveler spending will be lost over the next 16 months with 2 million jobs being lost at hotels, rental car agencies, convention centers, theme parks, restaurants, retail and travel agencies.
The TBR/WTTC Index provides a comprehensive view of changes in the travel and tourism industry by combining nine key economic performance variables into a statistically reliable monthly index number. Comparisons with other periods of stress provide insight into the significance of the September 2001 fall. For example, during the 1990-91 national recession, and the associated adverse impact of the Gulf War on travel, the TBR Index declined 10 percent over an 11-month period. The largest single monthly decline during that period amounted to only 2.8 percent in October 1990. Data contained in the TBR Index have been carefully analyzed back to 1987.
Shown in the brief table below are the relevant percentage changes in the U.S. and TBR/WTTC Indexes of Leading Economic Indicators for the most recent period.
| Percentage Change From: | ||
| Index | Previous Month | 12 Months Ago |
| U.S. | -0.5% | -0.7% |
| TBR | -8.4 | -11.3 |
"In analyzing the rates of change in these two indexes, it is important to keep in mind that both the U.S. economy and the travel and tourism industry had begun to show signs of weakening economic momentum in the late summer," notes Dr. James Howell, economist and President of the Boston-based Howell Group. "To that end, the serious adverse impacts of September 11th hit the economy at a most vulnerable moment -- timing alone contributed to an acceleration in the decline in both the economy and the industry."
The Most Impacted Sectors
A careful review of the month-to-month changes across the nine indicators represented in the TBR Index shows that all the sectors of travel and tourism have been effected. As indicated below, hotels, airlines, car rentals, restaurants, and travel agents, are all showing weak performances. The eight indicators that declined are:
· Hotel/Motel Occupancy Rates
· Hotel/Motel Room Revenue
· Revenue Passenger Miles
· Employment in Air Transportation and Transportation Service Industries
· Rental Car Travel and Mileage per-day Index
· Total Travel Agent Sales
· Retail Sales in Eating and Drinking Establishments
· Consumer Confidence Index
For the one remaining indicator, Personal Consumption Expenditure for Travel
and Related Items, the data was unchanged from the previous month. The most
significant declines were:
Percent Decline in September
Hotel/Motel Revenue: 19.4%
Consumer Confidence: 14.9
Hotel/Motel Occupancy: 10.2
Travel Agent Sales: 8.9
Recovery in the Travel and Tourism Industry
The behavior of the TBR/WTTC Index over the September period provides considerable insight into the sensitivity of the travel and tourism industry to external shocks. When thinking about the industry's recovery, it is also helpful to examine the past. Following the 1990-91 national recession, it took approximately one additional year for the travel and tourism industry to recover. This may be explained in part by the fact that the rebound in consumer confidence followed a most uneven pattern, involving sharp up-down swings lasting until the end of 1993. Similarly today, weak consumer confidence coupled with the uncertainty of safety as well as economic uncertainty, indicates that the recovery for the industry may take even longer than expected. To that end, TBR continues to support an economic stimulus package that addresses the needs of the travel and tourism industry and advocates action that will encourage people to travel now.
"The best way to help the industry, its 18 million employees and the economy in general, is to get people traveling again," notes Jonathan Tisch, Chairman and CEO of Loews Hotels and Chairman of the Travel Business Roundtable. "We believe this would be accomplished by temporary measures, including restoration of the business meal and entertainment tax deduction to 100 percent, restoration of spousal travel, and personal travel tax credits."
NOTE. Additional information on TBR is available at www.tbr.org. In addition, Dr. James Howell is available for further insight into the TBR Index and the specific data.
Subject: News@PATA Special Edition, September 14, 2001
Date: Thu, 13 Sep 2001 21:40:29 -0700
From: pata-@pata.th.com
[PATA = Pacific Asia Tourism Association]
PATA wishes to extend condolences to those who may have lost family members, friends and colleagues during the terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C. Mr. Joseph A. McInerney, PATA CEO, spoke on behalf of all PATA staff when he said, "We are shocked and saddened by the devastating events of September 11. Our thoughts and prayers are with all who have been affected."
PATA AMERICAS TRAVEL MART POSTPONED
The PATA Americas Travel Mart, slated for September 25-28 in Mexico City, has
been postponed until September 2002. The decision was made after PATA received
requests from both supplier and buyer attendees to delay the event due to the
situation in the United States. "Planning was becoming a problem for a
good number of participants," said Ms. Sheila Leong, PATA's Senior Director-Events.
"Under the circumstances, and with a crowded travel event calendar during
the next few months, we felt it was prudent to postpone the 16th Annual Americas
Travel Mart until next September." The event will be held in Mexico on
specific dates to be announced. Registered delegates with questions concerning
PATM 2001, please contact Ms. Leong in Bangkok. Tel: (66-2) 658-2000 x106. E-mail:
she-@pata.th.com. In the US, contact Mr. Bill Hastings, Managing Director-Americas
and Europe. Tel: (1-415) 986-4646. E-mail: bi-@pata.org.
SIC COMMISSIONS REPORT
PATA's Strategic Information Centre (SIC) has commissioned a report on the possible
short- and medium-term effects of the attacks. SIC Managing Director Mr. John
Koldowski will present an outline and early findings of the report to the PATA
Board of Directors on Sept. 22 in Taipei. Initial findings and periodic updates
will be released to PATA members and the media between Sept. 22 and late January,
when the full report is expected to be published.
IMPACT ON PACIFIC ASIA TRAVEL
PATA has been approached by numerous news organisations for a statement on the
effects the terrorist attacks may have on the travel industry. According to
Mr. McInerney, "The impact on tourism to Pacific Asia and the rest of the
world will probably be short-term, but it's going to depend upon two factors:
1) the degree and timing of retaliatory action by the United States against
those who are responsible, and subsequent response to that action, and 2) the
degree of restrictions placed upon airlines. I expect we will see the greatest
impact between now and early 2002."
KEEPING MEMBERS INFORMED
Copyright (c) 2001 by the Pacific Asia Travel Association
September 30, 2001 - New York Times on the Web (www.nytimes.com)
Many Once-Thriving Cities Are Suddenly Hurting
By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH
Sept. 11, most people agree, changed everything — including, it now appears, the economic map of the United States. The suicide attacks of 19 terrorists are not only tipping the economy into a recession, they have also scrambled the business landscape in places thousands of miles from the destruction. Many cities and regions that, in America's gathering economic gloom, had strong growth prospects just three weeks ago no longer do.
"The parts of the country that were holding up well before the attack are going to be nailed by this," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, a forecasting concern in West Chester, Pa., that analyzed the attacks' implications for Money & Business. Yet the terrorists' punch was so strong that even places reliant on military contracting and telecommunications, which may benefit from the nation's new spending priorities, will be hurt, though to a lesser degree.
It is, of course, too soon to know the scale of the economic damage in any particular place with any precision. But it is no secret that, because the attackers used commercial jets as weapons, the most dramatic economic effects are already being felt in cities most heavily dependent on air travel and the lodging industry: tourist sites catering to fly-in visitors, major convention centers and cities whose airports serve as hubs for the big airlines. The damage is compounded in cities that also have important financial activity.
A few months ago, Las Vegas, Honolulu, Fort Worth, Miami and Orlando, Fla., were enjoying growth, for example. Now, many of their swimming pools shimmer silently and their cavernous convention halls stand empty. "Recessions are similar in some ways, but they each have different triggers," said David Orr, chief economist at First Union in Charlotte, N.C. The last one, in the early 1990's, was started by a lending crunch in commercial real estate and struck Eastern cities with office towers, he recalled. The one before that, in the early 1980's, was set off by high interest rates and followed by a downturn, spurred by collapsing oil prices, that ravaged the oil patch.
This one, economists agree, has a spark no one could have guessed: fear of flying. "Before the attack, you could draw a line down the map from Detroit to Birmingham, and for 500 miles on either side of that line, you were in a recession," Mr. Zandi said. "Now, the economic problems aregoing to broaden out and engulf the entire country."
In his analysis, Mr. Zandi ranked the nation's metropolitan economies, based on their vulnerability in the coming months. He also ranked the cities best positioned to withstand the shock of the attack. The rankings are to some degree based, he cautioned, on assumptions that may ultimately prove false: that there will be no more terrorist attacks in the United States, that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by an additional half-point, that the government will continue to provide fiscal stimulus and that energy prices will remain relatively high. Not a single city of the top 318 metropolitan areas in the ranking will benefit economically from the shock, he added. Every one will be hurt.
But the pain will probably be buffered in communities with colleges — students tend to stay in school during recessions — like Waco, Tex., State College, Pa., and Yolo County, Calif. Towns with humble tourist attractions that mainly draw visitors who arrive by car will also be helped, like Panama City, Fla., a beach town in the Panhandle whose relative obscurity may hold new appeal to jittery tourists. Cities with a military presence, like Fort Walton Beach, Fla., which has two Air Force bases, or information-technology businesses of interest to intelligence agencies, may also be cushioned. So will cities with oil activity, like Bakersfield, Calif., according to Mr. Zandi's thinking. Jersey City, which ranks as the American city most resilient to the downturn, is a special case, Mr. Zandi said. It will reap large gains in economic output from the many displaced workers from Lower Manhattan who cross the Hudson River to work there.
Up and down the rankings, a general pattern emerges: America's larger cities, no matter how diverse their economies, are expected to witness the greatest economic disruption in the months to come. Towns and cities on the roads not taken — the places one enters and leaves on propeller planes — will endure much as before. "Lubbock is at the ends of the earth," said Mr. Zandi, explaining why the remote Texas farm center landed seventh on his list of communities best positioned to weather the coming storm.
New York, perhaps oddly, does not make the top 10 distressed areas; that is because the rankings are based on projected economic activity in the coming months, not the economic value that was lost when the World Trade Center turned to dust. Not that New York won't suffer — it ranked 13th on the list of hardest-hit cities, close behind a Connecticut cluster that includes Stamford, Danbury and Bridgeport, and just ahead of Hartford and New London. New Yorkers alone will file 75,000 unemployment claims as a result of the attacks on the World Trade Center, according to the Labor Department. But Mr. Zandi said their lost jobs were likely to be offset by jobs created by flows of federal and state money for rebuilding.
The more quickly and effectively President Bush's promised reprisals against the terrorist network restore public confidence, he added, the more quickly the rebuilding of Lower Manhattan will begin. "If there's a quick resolution to the conflict, say, by the end of the year, then the New York City economy may come out of this better than many other parts of the country," Mr. Zandi said. "It will depend on how things unfold militarily."
Las Vegas, by contrast, relies heavily on air travel but has no rebuilding to do. Its economy appears to be the most harshly affected by the devastation 2,200 miles to the east. Before the terrorist attack, it had enjoyed the fastest economic growth of any American city — more than 5 percent.
The city's booming growth is driven, to a degree that only now seems alarming, by air tourism. On any given day, Las Vegas boasts a quarter of a million visitors, about a tenth of them conventioneers. In normal times, 46 percent of them come through the airport. "One of every three jobs here is in travel and tourism," said Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Even as the city's economy has soared over the last decade, he said, the ratio has remained the same.
In recent days, the tourists who support those jobs have largely stopped coming. Some of those who were in Las Vegas left after the World Trade Center fell, saying they could not imagine rejoicing over a jackpot amid the national shock and grief. Business planners have called to cancel hundreds of conventions; as of last week, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority counted 249 such cancellations, a loss of 78,000 anticipated visitors who would have spent an estimated $78.7 million, not counting gambling. Even the city's quickie wedding business has tumbled, according to the Clark County Marriage License Bureau.
Immediately after the disaster, the large casino and resort concerns, like the Mandalay Resort Group (news/quote), Harrah's Entertainment (news/quote) and MGM Mirage (news/quote), tried to avoid laying people off by juggling part-timers' schedules and asking idle staff members to go home early. When that proved insufficient, they closed off whole floors and wings of their vast properties, and began layoffs.
Jim Gentleman, a vice president of Certified Airline Passenger Services, woke up one morning and found his business, which provided airline check-in services to tourists at their hotels, essentially banned by new federal security rules. The company "has no cash flow at this point," he said. Mr. Gentleman has laid off his entire field staff of 65 people and set about investigating a new business model: training his employees to operate the costly explosive-detection systems that have been considered for United States airports after previous air disasters, but rejected for cost and space reasons.
Mr. Gentleman now thinks that their arrival is inevitable — the only questions being who will run the machines and whether his lenders will tide his company over while he waits to find out. "Can we reinvent ourselves?" he asked. "We are trying to be creative. But from a financial standpoint, we're in a very difficult position right now. We've been in touch with our banks and many of our suppliers and asked them to be patient, and fortunately, they are being understanding."
Las Vegas's newest megaresort, a hotel, shopping, gambling and convention complex called the Aladdin Resort and Casino, filed notice with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it might have to cease operations entirely. The Aladdin was already heavily burdened by construction debt before the crisis.
The troubles of Las Vegas will not be confined to Las Vegas. Nevada gets about three- fourths of its budget from tourism and gambling revenue, and already, the government in Carson City has frozen hiring and postponed several building projects. Henderson, population 150,000, has been warned that it may not get all the money it had counted on for a new state college that was to have opened next year. The Highway Patrol will have to make do with its outmoded headquarters a while longer.
Reno is also likely to suffer deeply — the nation's fifth-most-affected city, Mr. Zandi figures. There, casino owners are trying to avoid mass layoffs by cutting back staff hours. Chuck Alvey, president of the Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada, put on a brave face and warned against drawing lessons about Reno from the Las Vegas outlook. "Reno is very much a drive-in market," he said, noting that even amid the flood of the cancellations in Las Vegas, Reno held a motorcycle rally on the weekend of Sept. 22 that drew big crowds. "People from the Bay Area can get here in a few hours' time by vehicle," Mr. Alvey said. "So we may be a little more insulated than Las Vegas."
Mr. Zandi thinks otherwise. Much of Reno's drive-in traffic comes from the San Francisco Bay Area, he said. And San Francisco is the seventh-most-affected city on his list, largely because of its ties to United Airlines, and its reliance on financial services and the weakened high-technology sector. He expects even drive-in tourism to Reno to taper off in the coming months, as Bay Area residents trim discretionary spending.
In Honolulu, civic leaders are not playing down the extent of their economic devastation. Honolulu ranks only fourth on Mr. Zandi's list of hard-hit cities, but that is because the list ranks degrees of change, not absolute misery. Yet while Las Vegas is falling back from powerful growth to a crawl, Honolulu had one of the slowest economic growth rates of any American city before the attack. Now it is being knocked flat. No biker rallies, no special promotions will buck up Honolulu's economy until the day tourists are willing to fly out over long stretches of water again. "This set of circumstances has really demonstrated our fragility and our vulnerability," said Gov. Benjamin J. Cayetano of Hawaii.
A recent tally by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization of air arrivals for the third week of September found domestic travel down 30 percent from the comparable period last year. International travel was down by 78 percent. During the gulf war, Honolulu suffered when its arrivals declined by just 13 percent. Now all bets are off; no one knows how long the shock will last. "We are, quite simply, in uncharted territory," the university study concluded. By the third week of September, Hawaii's Labor and Industrial Relations Department was receiving unemployment claims at more than twice the usual rate, the vast majority from people who had lost tourism income.
Jeremy Harris, Honolulu's mayor, hopes to prime the pump with construction. He has promised to spend more than $200 million on new building over the next four months. He is also lobbying the City Council to extend a seven-year property tax "holiday" on business construction and is considering giving Honolulu home- builders a tax holiday, too.
Governor Cayetano has called the Legislature back into session and is also floating relief packages, including $1 billion in new borrowing to build a prison, a medical school and a biotechnology research center. He, too, is talking about tax cuts, and he thinks the state may delay a scheduled increase in the minimum wage. He has suggested diverting money from Hawaii's hurricane relief fund to shore up an economy flattened by an attack half a world away. Some business executives are using the down time to catch up on inventorying, repairs and maintenance. Others are preparing a new marketing campaign for the islands, featuring discount coupons and new cultural events. One idea is to promote the islands' "healing" qualities. The executives all want quick action, but they admit that they still do not know when it will be safe to begin the campaign.
In Fort Worth, which ranks third on Mr. Zandi's hardest-hit list, the economic downturn is no less powerful, but it takes a different form — and its experience is more typical of major American cities. Unlike Honolulu, Fort Worth can be reached by land. Unlike Las Vegas, it has spent the last decade consciously trying to diversify its economy. It was motivated by a round of mass layoffs when the cold war ended and the Navy canceled plans to build the A-12 fighter. Within six months, more than 7,000 General Dynamics employees there were out of work.
As it weaned its economy from military contracting, Fort Worth enjoyed one of the nation's highest job-creation rates in the 1990's. It built a big new freight airport, attracted a cast of big-name companies to an industrial zone that sprouted nearby, and revamped its downtown. It benefited mightily from the presence of the AMR Corporation (news/quote), the parent company of American Airlines, whose headquarters in the city make it the area's largest employer. American is also the largest tenant at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport; it runs one of its largest maintenance hangars at the new freight airport.
So Fort Worth had a sense of déjà vu when on Sept. 19 AMR announced that it would lay off 20,000 of its 138,000 employees. "All of those layoffs won't be here, of course," said Michael Ellis, an associate professor of economics and finance at Texas Wesleyan University. "But the dominoes are beginning to fall."
The Dallas/Fort Worth airport swiftly cut $10 million from its $200 million operating budget, and warned of more large cuts to come. Sabre Holdings, based in Fort Worth, announced that it would miss its earnings projections. Fort Worth hoteliers who cater to American pilot trainees said they feared for their survival. Restaurant owners worried that no one would want to eat out if America went to war. Home sales fell to 56 percent of the normal level, according to Edward L. Wilson Jr., a partner with the market research firm Residential Strategies.
Then came a blow from the financial-services sector: Ameritrade (news/quote) Holding, an online broker based in Omaha, announced that it was shuttering half of its 140,000-square-foot customer calling center at the Fort Worth freight airport. Now, Fort Worth is pinning big hopes on military contracting again. It is lobbying hard on behalf of Lockheed Martin, which operates the former General Dynamics plant, and is competing with Boeing (news/quote) to build the Joint Strike Fighter, a successor to the F-16. The contract is expected to be awarded next month. "We've all got our fingers crossed," said Bill Thornton, president of the Forth Worth Chamber of Commerce. The contract is the largest military procurement ever, worth as much as $200 billion over time.
Fort Worth's young people, meanwhile, seem to think business school is the
best place to ride out the new tough times. Almost all of the area's business
schools are reporting significant increases in enrollment this fall. Mr. Zandi,
the economist, said college enrollments were likely to be up all over the country
in the coming semesters, particularly at state colleges and universities. Their
relative low cost and proximity to home will hold special appeal in today's
climate of insecurity and belt-tightening, he said. As enrollments rise, colleges
are likely to hire more teachers, and students will spend their money in college
towns, buffering
those economies.
Thus State College, Pa., and Yolo County, Calif., home to the University of California at Davis, are on Mr. Zandi's list of least-affected localities. Albuquerque, whose economy is the largest of the "resilient" cities, is home not only to a large campus of the University of New Mexico but also to the Sandia National Laboratory and Kirtland Air Force Base.
In Albuquerque, business leaders perceive possibilities at Sandia, where the work includes weapons design and energy research. Sandia may one day contribute to the battle against international terrorism, said Webb Johnson, director of business research at the Greater Albuquerque Chamber of Commerce. Before the attack, Sandia had sponsored a business forum that gave rise to a number of spinoff companies, he said, like Micro Optical Devices, which makes tiny solar cells for satellites and was acquired by Emcore of Somerset, N.J.; and MesoSystems Technology, which sells devices that measure airborne contaminants.
Now, America's heightened sense of insecurity may give rise to even more commercial applications. Mr. Johnson spoke of Sandia's work in nanotechnology — the science of engineering complex machines the size of a pinprick — and the promise it holds for developing microscopic nerve-gas detection robots or spy satellites the size of grains of pollen.
But all that is in the future, Mr. Johnson added. In the here and now, Albuquerque's tourism sector is about to meet its first big test since the terrorists struck. This week, it is holding its hot-air balloon fiesta, normally the biggest tourist event of the year. At first, when the Federal Aviation Administration banned all non-instrument-guided flying, city leaders were afraid that they would have to cancel the festival, which has been held for 30 years, Mr. Johnson said. But then the authorities declared that the balloons could ascend. Now the big question around town is how many balloonists will brave the trip to New Mexico.
Mr. Johnson spotted his first balloon of the season Wednesday morning, he said. He took it as a good sign. "There seems to be a degree of confidence left," he said. "But it's fragile."
Copyright 2001 The New York Times Company
Selected stories from ASIA Travel Tips.com
3/10/2001 THAI
Announces Measures and Commercial Strategy to Combat Effects on Aviation Industry
1/10/2001 Continental
Airlines today reported operating statistics for the month of September
28/9/2001 "An
Airline in Crisis" A Message from Chairman, American Airlines Don Carty
28/9/2001 United
Airlines Further Reduces Capacity in Response to Continued Soft Demand for Travel
25/10/2001 Singapore
Visitor Arrivals in September 2001
25/10/2001 Marriott
and Renaissance hotels in the Middle East offer a variety of special deals
29/10/2001 Australia's
first official tourism arrival figures released since the US terrorist attacks
indicate a 12 per cent decline in international visitor arrivals.
15/11/2001 Cathay
Pacific temporarily suspends flights to Istanbul
15/11/2001 Qantas
To Reduce Staff By 1500 to 2000
15/11/2001 The
announcement today that Qantas would reduce services to a range of international
destinations is a sign of the tough times says ATC
16/11/2001 THAI to Close Seven Off-line Offices in USA and Canada
Travel Industry Association of America (TIA)
Revised International Travel Arrivals for the US to 2005
Forecasts of arrivals to the United States for 2001 and beyond have been revised by the Department of Commerce International Trade Administration Tourism Industries. The new forecasts predict that total arrivals to the U.S. will be down by 12.6 percent in 2001 over 2000, but most markets should recover by 2003. Overseas arrivals are forecast to drop by 17.1 percent in 2001 over 2000. Arrivals from the three key markets that TIA tracks will also be down 2001 over 2000: Japan, -21.0 percent; the United Kingdom, -13.1 percent; and Brazil, -11.8 percent. These forecasts have been revised not only due to the events of September 11, 2001, but also due to the global economy not growing in 2001 as predicted. Consumer confidence had eroded and outbound travel was already down in many markets prior to the terrorist attack on the U.S. Click here to see forecasts for total arrivals, overseas arrivals, and arrivals from the top 25 tourism generating countries. TIA is encouraging travel professionals to work together to ensure that travel is safe and secure and to rebuild confidence among travelers in its Travel Recovery Plan.
US Traveler Confidence After Terrorist Attacks
Ten days following the September 11 attacks TIA was in the field with a national consumer survey to measure the impact of the events on travel. The results of the first survey, released during Marketing Outlook Forum October 3, included some reasons for optimism: 70 percent of Americans who had travel plans before September 11 plan to keep them. And 88 percent of travelers say they'll keep or change plans rather than canceling. The survey goes back into the field October 12-14 to measure any changes and it will be conducted periodically through the end of the year to track further developments.
TIA Releases Forecast for Travel Volume and Spending
WASHINGTON, Nov. 13 /PRNewswire/ -- According to the Travel Industry Association of America's (TIA) latest forecast, total domestic travel volume by Americans will decrease 3.5 percent in 2001 to 962.3 million person-trips*. Domestic traveler expenditures are expected to decline twice as much in 2001, falling 7 percent below 2000, for a loss of $33.7 billion. Total inbound arrivals for 2001 are projected to decline nearly 13 percent and international traveler spending will decrease 11.2 percent, for a loss of $9.2 billion in 2001. In total, nearly $43 billion in spending by domestic and international travelers is expected to be lost during 2001. The forecast is based on TIA's Travel Forecast Model, built by DRI-WEFA.
In 2002, total domestic travel volume and travel expenditures will both show a slight increase from the low level of 2001, but will still remain $27.4 billion below 2000. Although visits and spending by international travelers will increase faster than domestic travelers in 2002, they won't reach 2000's record levels until 2003.
``The tragedies experienced by our nation on September 11 have had a significant impact on our nation's travel and tourism industry, both domestic and inbound,'' said William S. Norman, president and CEO of the Travel Industry Association of America. ``We still have a long road ahead as we work to rebuild confidence in U.S. travel.''
The September 11 attacks and weakening economy hit business travel more severely than pleasure travel. In the fourth quarter of 2001, TIA is forecasting a 12 percent decrease in business travel and a 9 percent drop in pleasure travel, compared to the same period in 2000. For full-year 2001, business travel will decrease 6.5 percent and pleasure travel will fall 3.4 percent from 2000.
For the entire fourth quarter of 2001, air travel is projected to decline 25 percent and is expected to be down 9.4 percent overall for full-year 2001. Travel by car is expected to be down 2 percent for the fourth quarter and down 1.5 percent for full-year 2001.
Total domestic and international travel-generated employment is expected to show a dramatic decline in 2001. According to TIA, 453,500 jobs directly related to travel and tourism will be lost this year, down 5.6 percent from 2000. An additional 74,000 jobs will be cut in 2002 for a two-year total of 527,400 jobs lost from 2000 levels. A person-trip is defined as one person on one trip of at least 50 miles, one way, away from home.
TIA is the national, non-profit organization representing all components of the $584 billion travel industry. TIA's mission is to represent the whole of the U.S. travel industry to promote and facilitate increased travel to and within the United States.
U.S. International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,12/19/2001
US International Arrivals Drop 29 Percent in September
Total international arrivals in September 2001 dropped 29 percent when compared to September 2000. Each of the top 10 international markets experienced double-digit drops mainly due to the devastating terrorist attacks on September 11th. The largest declines, however, could be seen in markets with struggling economies, namely Brazil, Germany and Japan, who each experienced more than a 40 percent decline in arrivals to the U.S. during this month. International arrivals in September deepened the year-to-date declines to be 6 percent below the same nine-month period last year.
Top 10 Countries
Country: (% Change Sep. 2001/2000); (% Change YTD 2001/2000)
Canada: -19%; -4%
Mexico: -30%; 3%
Japan: -45%; -7%
United Kingdom: -27%; -7%
Germany: -46%; -21%
France: -34%; -12%
South Korea: -20%; 1%
Brazil: -49%; -12%
Venezuela: -21%; 5%
Italy: -40%; -10%
Note: Table may be found on TInet: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/tinews/archive/20011219.html - For a full list of monthly arrivals by country and region, please visit the "Monthly" section on TInet. The direct link is: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/view/m-2001-I-001/index.html
UK Travel Recovery Barometer Survey Results Released
The Office of Travel and Tourism Industries released the results of the first
United Kingdom Travel Recovery Barometer survey. The UK Travel
Recovery Barometer program is conducted as a partnership between the U.S. Department
of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI), the U.S. Commercial
Service - UK, and Visit USA Association UK (Ltd).
The survey covers travel demand and trends for the following time periods:
The Initial Impact of the September 11 Attacks: September and October/November
Travel, Winter Travel, Spring Travel
Find out how British travel to the U.S. was affected by the September 11th attacks,
and what the members of the UK travel trade expect to come in the near future.
To access the Summary report and the full results go to the Office of Travel
and Tourism Industries web site and enter the Recovery Center: http://tinet.ita.doc.gov/recovery.html
The UK Travel Recovery Barometer is a qualitative research program intended
to assist the travel and tourism industry in understanding the UK
travel market by providing insight on the impact of travel from the UK travel
trades point of view. The respondent results are a Barometer of the
impact on the in-market travel trade, and what they expect for travel demand
for the U.S. and its competitors in the coming months.
A second UK survey is being launched in March to capture summer travel expectations.
OTTI has also launched a Brazil Travel Recovery
Barometer. Results will be available this week.
Helen Marano, Director for the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, indicates
that the Barometer program is yet another tool to help increase
U.S. exports in travel and tourism. So much effort is put forth by U.S. destinations
and businesses in working with the in-market travel
trade. It is imperative to gather qualitative input from tour operators, travel
agent firms, destinations and corporate representatives, and the
travel press. Many of the U.S. destinations and businesses exporting travel
have UK representatives and work closely with one or two tour
operators, but a broader perspective is hard to capture. Even less current information
is available for those without in-market contacts. The
Barometer program helps fill that information gap.
It is recommended that results from the UK Travel Trade Barometer be used in
conjunction with other research and internal information to make
marketing and planning decisions.
To track visitor arrival trends, use the Summary of International Travel of
the United States report. To help forecast travel, use OTTIs Forecast
report. Use the UK Travel Recovery Barometer program to understand the level
of the short-term forecast. Other supportive information is
available by state, city and industry sector in the OTTI In-Flight Survey program.
Other resources are available from the U.S. Commercial Service - UK and Visit
USA Association UK (Ltd).
To obtain more information call OTTI at +1 (202) 482-1129 or visit our web site at: info@tinet.ita.doc.gov
Click Here for Other TIA Press Releases
National Public Radio new reports - Real Audio required to listen
Patriotism - NPR Senior News Analyst Daniel Schorr remarks on how wartime presidents have parlayed stateside patriotism into greater gains for the country. (4:15) Weekend Edition - October 21, 2001
Flight for Freedom - This weekend (Oct 7, 2001), hundreds of people hopped aboard flights from Oregon to New York City in a symbolic and financial show of support. From Oregon Public Broadcasting, Colin Fogarty reports. (2:58) Weekend Edition - Sunday - October 07, 2001
Florida
Budget - Lawmakers from tourism-dependent states including Hawaii and
Florida find themselves wrestling with massive budget shortfalls resulting from
the weak economy and terrorist attacks. NPR's Debbie Elliott examines Florida's
dilemma. (4:00) Weekend All Things Considered - October 21, 2001
Tourist Taxes - October 16, 2001 - NPR's Scott Horsley reports that the decline in tourism since last month's terrorist attacks is hurting municipal governments, which rely on hotel, restaurant, and airport taxes for much of their revenue. (3:54) Morning Edition - October 16, 2001
Fall Foliage - Charlotte Renner of Maine Public Radio reports that New England's tourism industry rebounded over the Columbus Day weekend, as the autumn foliage attracted visitors who'd been scared off by their fears of terrorism. (2:41) Morning Edition - October 09, 2001
Tourism Slump - NPR's Scott Horsley reports on how amusement parks, casinos and airports are struggling with a dive in tourism since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Grief and fear of flying are keeping travelers at home, and the tourism industry is suffering. (4:05) Morning Edition - September 25, 2001
The
Capitol - NPR's Brian Naylor reports on how the confusion and uncertainty
over the Anthrax scare has affected the life in Congress. Between the Anthrax-laced
mail that reached the office of the Senate majority leader, and the disruption
of tourism that threatens to turn Capitol Hill into a virtual ghost town, some
wonder when, if ever, life on the Hill will return to normal. (3:15) All Things
Considered - October 16, 2001
Tighter Security a New Way of Life for Americans - From airports to business offices to college football stadiums, federal, state and local officials are bolstering domestic security efforts. NPR's Ina Jaffe reports for Weekend Edition Saturday. Oct. 13, 2001.
Visiting
Ground Zero - Commentator John Ridley doesn't approve of the latest
trend in New York -- getting tickets to go look at Ground Zero. (2:55) - Morning
Edition - January 17, 2002
Also from NPR: Air Travel - Airlines (and Airports) Attempt a Difficult Comeback After Attacks - NPR link to text and audio stories on the airline industry since Sept. 11, 2001 - including news items from various outlets
SEARCH the NPR Archives Website for more RealAudio news stories.
Subject: A Special Edition of Tourism Tidbits/Terrorism
Date: Fri, 05 Oct 2001 15:34:55 -0500; From: "Dr. Peter E. Tarlow"
<tourism@bihs.net>
"Tourism Tidbits" from Tourism & More Inc. "Tourism Tidbits'" goal is to provide travel professionals with a monthly easy-to-read overview of creative ideas. With proper referencing, we invite you to quote or reproduce " Tourism Tidbits" and to pass it along to a friend. Our web page is at: http://www.TourismandMore.com/. "Tourism Tidbits" is published monthly in English and Spanish and translated into Croatian. The Spanish translation is provided by "Imagen & Comunicación Corporativa toibe@hotmail.com"
Tourism Meets Terrorism: A paradigm shift
The recent terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington, DC destroyed more than many thousands of lives and hundreds of millions of dollars in property value. The attacks also forced the travel industry to deal with a major travel paradigm shift. This shift in travelers' mindsets had been occurring prior to September 11, however, the recent terrorist attacks, and the possibility of new attacks, has given the travel and tourism a major wake-up call.
Unfortunately, many in the travel and tourism industry were the last to realize that the shift was already underway. Put in its simplest of terms; travelers no longer fear tourism security but demand it. In the old travel industry paradigm, security was the "dark secrete." Industry leaders rarely spoke about threats to tourists in public fearing that such openness would scare away visitors. The common belief was that security was a "necessary evil" that one had to have, but that security added nothing to the business' bottom line. For this reason, tourism and travel security were rarely publicized, never mentioned in marketing campaigns, under-funded, and its practitioners were often under-paid. The old paradigm led to poor security at airports, hotels, restaurants and attractions. Security professionals who spoke of acts of terrorism, bio-chemical attacks, and crime were seen as alarmist and asked to rephrase their warnings in ways that would be acceptable for public consumption.
The public however was beginning to change its views. Even prior to the September attacks, there were multiple signs that the public concerned about and demanded good tourism security. Throughout the travel and tourism industry anecdotal evidence began to appear that our customers were choosing locations and venues precisely because they were safe and secure. Studies and scholarly articles noted that security personnel were beginning to obtain some of the tourism security training that was needed.
The new paradigm for the travel and tourism industry is based on the fact that tourism security is now a major part of a location's marketing strategy. Here are just a few examples of the way that the tourism and travel industry is beginning to assimilate this paradigm change.
Below are some suggestions to help you make this paradigm change.
"Tidbits" for November, 2001
Updating Tourism's fight for survival.
The current world political situation is such that the tourism industry is in a fight for its very survival. At this writing, several airplanes have been recalled due to the possibility of a "foreign" biological substance having been found on them, cases of anthrax are being discovered in various parts of the world. Threats against transportation companies and tall buildings continue to come on an almost daily basis from multiple terrorists groups. The travel and tourism industry received a wale-up call on September 11, 2001 when airplanes were grounded and a large number of people lost their employment. Another major terrorist attack would do great harm to the industry. In the hope of helping each of you to do your part in assuring the maximum safety of our guests, Tourism Tidbits offers the following updated suggestions.
It is strongly recommended that you read these suggestions in conjunction with the special mid-October issue of "Tourism Tidbits" sent out soon after the September 11th attacks.
Fix rather than market. This is not the time to market security but to provide it. Tourism will need a lot more than mere cosmetic changes in order to beat the threat of terrorism. Among these changes are upgraded surveillance equipment, used in conjunction with good tourism sociological understandings. Simply upgrading security will not work if it is not done in a way that fits into the sociological patterns of visitors.
Realize that even when the Taliban fall, this will not be the end of terrorism. The travel and tourism industry cannot afford to be lax in believing that terrorism will go away. State supported terrorism emanates from a number of nations. Pressure needs to be placed on the governments to not only take reactive measures but also proactive, preemptive military measures.
Recognize the interaction between criminal acts and terrorism acts. For example, Retired New York City Detective Lothel Crawford notes that often terrorist use identity fraud as a cover-up. Realize that everyone is a potential victim of identity fraud. Identity fraud can be used not only to gain access to someone else's funds but in the case of terrorism someone's files. In the United States you can reduce telephone solicitations form national marketers by sending your name and address to DNA Telephone Preference Service Post Office Box 9014, Farmingdale, New York 11735-9014.
Continue to write to your nation's federal aviation industry and demand that real security measures be taken at airports and on airplanes. Currently, many airports have instituted cosmetic changes rather than real security measures. Examine all bags including paper bags. Too many security personnel are only looking for the high tech terrorist weapons rather than realizing that a low tech delivery system can be as (or more deadly) than a high tech system. For example, a paper bag left at an airport can contain a weapon, garbage bins should be emptied on a regular basis, and mail-box slots should be made so that no package can be put inside of them. Other things to include in a letter are requests that:
… employ duplicate checks of baggage
… scan all bags including those which are checked
… remove all potential weapons from gift shops that are beyond the security barriers
… check all workers who have access to airplanes while it is at the gate.
Check and recheck all ventilation systems. No one should be allowed to approach a ventilation system who does not have your full confidence. Make sure that contract labor is kept far from areas that can be used as delivery systems for bio-terrorism.
Get beyond the fear that too much security will scare the public. The public is more frightened of security breeches than it is of security methods. The old paradigm of hiding security professionals is no longer valid. Visible security is the best marketing tool that you can develop.
Meet with your police officials and elected officials now. Do not wait for an incident to happen, the best way to recover from terrorism is to prevent it. Vigilance, interagency cooperation, and a serious commitment to security stop terrorism.
Know something about who terrorists are. While tourism professionals should not engage in racial profiling there are certain sociological patterns that may be useful. Biographical sketches do not guarantee future patterns, however, many terrorists have often been unmarried men in their twenties. Often universities have been fertile recruiting grounds and many terrorists have had at least 2 years of education beyond high school. Almost all terrorists are ideologically driven.
Teach guests to travel smart. In a world of crime and terrorism, it is best that our guests learn to avoid displays of wealth, vary their daily routines, and keep low profiles. Often terrorists strike people who are in easy range, thus avoiding aisle seats may be helpful.
Attend as many tourism security conferences and bring in as many experts to
address your organization. If your state/national/university is not sponsoring
a lecture on tourism and terrorism at its major conference ask why not. In the
new world of terrorism, rural locations are as vulnerable as urban locations.
Subject: Ecotourism decline jeopardizes conservation efforts
(following Sept. 11, 2001)
Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2001 09:38:07 -0400; From: The International Ecotourism Society
<patricia@ecotourism.org>; Reply-To: observer@ecotourism.org
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Patricia Carrington, Media Relations
Manager, The International Ecotourism Society, email: patricia@ecotourism.org,
tel: 802/651-9818, fax: 802/651-9819, P.O. Box 668, Burlington, VT USA 05402
October 24, 2001
ECOTOURISM DECLINE JEOPARDIZES CONSERVATION EFFORTS
Costa Rica, once dependent on banana agriculture and small-scale farming, has
built a stronger economy, conserved land, and supported scientific research
on rainforests through ecotourism.
Now these efforts are in jeopardy.
In a survey of its membership, The International Ecotourism Society (TIES) found that Costa Rica, like many ecotourism and nature destinations, is feeling the ripple effects of the travel industry slowdown caused by the September 11th attacks in the United States and the military action in the Middle East. The unwillingness of many Americans to travel is sidetracking the goals of ecotourism-to provide benefits to local people and to aid in conservation efforts.
Even with the current turmoil, TIES' survey indicates that booking rates for North American itineraries remain positive and stable, and the World Tourism Organization (WTO) still predicts positive growth for tourism worldwide. During the first eight months of 2001 tourism was on track for a 3% increase, following a record 7.4% growth rate in 2000. The WTO predicts that 2001 should still see growth, although at a slightly lower rate of 2%.
In the past decade, key nature destinations have posted rates of growth well above average, indicating ecotourism's strength as both an industry and a travel preference. Costa Rica, for example, posted a 9% average annual growth rate from 1990-99, according to the WTO. In the same time frame South Africa saw a phenomenal average annual increase of 19.3%, Indonesia 8%, and Belize 6%.
After such exceptional growth over the past decade, the sudden slowdown in the travel industry has deeply affected ecotourism providers. According to TIES' membership survey, destinations and their citizens employed in the ecotourism sector are feeling the threat and the pains of an international travel industry damaged by terrorism and world conflict. Across the globe cancellations are high and bookings are low. Ecotourism is being hit at its roots-local providers are firing staff, reducing departures, and preparing for the worst.
"The local impact is huge. Who really gets hurt are those who provide the services-the lodging operator, the growers of food, the people who provide the transportation," said Richard Ryel, president of International Expeditions and member of TIES' Board of Directors.
Ecotourism is especially important in developing nations by providing additional funds and jobs at the local level, where they are needed most. A 1999 study by the United Kingdom Department for International Development found that tourism is growing in all but one of the 12 countries that are home to 80 percent of the world's poor-including Brazil, Indonesia, Nepal and Peru. Known for its high level of biological and cultural diversity, Peru has used ecotourism to improve the economies of local communities and to conserve natural areas. According to Kurt Holle of Rainforest Expeditions in Peru, the current slowdown in the tourism industry has affected its people-job opportunities could become scarce and national parks are facing a decrease in revenue from visitation, which could directly affect their conservation programs.
"Manu and Tambopata parks, both known for high biological diversity, probably make around US$75,000 a year in entrance fees, which will be directly affected by a decrease in tourists. Contracts for construction, usually handed out to locals, may be paralyzed as lodges will have no money to invest. Handicraft sales are reduced in direct proportion to tourism decreases. If things remain as is-with a war, an anthrax scare, a pummeled economy-we will face a year in which sales may not grow or may decrease 10-20%," says Holle.
Destinations suffer unfairly
Many tour operators in ecotourism destinations report that cancellations have stabilized, but their real worry is bookings-Americans seem reluctant to leave home. Americans' reluctance to travel to other destinations can be blamed on the fear of the unknown, explains Ryel. Unlike other recent conflicts like the Gulf War, Ryel believes that since the danger does not appear to be confined to one place, people are afraid to go anywhere.
Tour operators in Costa Rica feel spared by major cancellations, because the terrorist attacks occurred in the low season for travel. But, while it is the low season for travel, it is the high season for bookings. Preliminary estimates have a 30% decrease in bookings from last year. "This is booking season. The week before last we were getting 17 Costa Rica bookings, when we should have been getting 100 bookings," says Tamara Budowski, president of Horizontes, an inbound tour operator in Costa Rica.
Many countries that are geographically close to the bombing in Afghanistan are experiencing a significant decline in tourism, but still remain safe destinations for travelers. Tour operators with itineraries to places like India and Nepal, which have little to do with the current conflict, report cancellations and continue to struggle with low bookings.
Even further from the conflict, tour operators in Kenya continues to experience high cancellation rates. According to Anne Loehr, of Eco-resorts, an inbound tour operator in Kenya, Christmas bookings for Eco-resorts were canceled following the start of the bombings in Afghanistan. Information requests are also down significantly. Loehr worries that the continuing decline will derail all the positive economic and conservation effects that ecotourism has had in Kenya.
"This affects the entire region and Kenyan people, from the farmer who supplies food to the hotels, to the mechanic who fixes the safari vehicles, to the travel agent who books the flights, to the camp staff and guides who have been laid off due to slow business. This will then effect the environment as all these struggling Kenyans will naturally revert to subsistence-level farming and poaching small game in order to survive," says Loehr.
However, the situation in other nature destinations provides a stark comparison to the lows in Costa Rica, Kenya, and Asia. A tour operator in Alaska, for example, reports virtually no change in bookings or cancellations, since most trips do not begin until May 2002. And tour operators with North American itineraries are faring well, since many Americans have changed their focus from trips abroad to trips at home. Backroads, an inbound and outbound tour operator based in California, reports a shift in the demand from international trips to trips within the U.S. They anticipate this shift to continue.
Travelers can make the difference
Although bookings are down, Budowski remains hopeful that Costa Rica's proximity to the United States-as well as the peaceful and healing qualities of nature experiences-will bring travelers back. "There seems to be a consensus among many ecotourism operators that nature has a soothing and healing effect on human beings. One of our clients is talking about the 'tonic of wildness, of nature,' a Thoreau quote. Because of nature's ability to sooth and heal, I predict that nature travel will be strong, and has the best outlook within the travel industry," said Budowski.
Ryel is also positive that travelers will continue to choose ecotourism because of the natural and cultural richness of the destinations. "The destinations are still there-they still possess the same natural and cultural wonders that provide enriching experiences," Ryel reminded travelers.
From the Amazon to the Arctic, many communities and small businesses have made a commitment to conserve their fragile places and cultures using ecotourism. Every traveler can contribute, and every responsible visit helps to reaffirm local concern for preserving the natural environment and cultural diversity. "As individuals find they want to renew their exploration of the world, this choice will have significance in many people's lives, well beyond America's borders," said Megan Epler Wood, TIES president.
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN - The New York Times - December 9, 2001
News anchor Tom Brokaw tells the story of meeting a young New York City fireman a week after Sept. 11. The fireman had just participated in a memorial service for some of his fallen colleagues and the two of them talked about the tragedy. "As I said goodbye," Mr. Brokaw recalled, "he grabbed my arm and his expression took on a tone of utter determination as he said, `Mr. Brokaw, watch my generation now, just watch us.' " As the author of the acclaimed "The Greatest Generation," the story of the World War II cohort that saved America from Nazism, Mr. Brokaw told me he knew just what the man was saying: " `This is our turn to be a greatest generation.' "
There is a lot of truth to that. I have nothing but respect for the way President Bush has conducted this war. But this moment cannot just be about moving troops and tracking terrorists. There is a deep hunger in America post-Sept. 11 in many people who feel this is their war in their backyard and they would like to be summoned by the president to do something more than go shopping. If you just look at the amount of money spontaneously donated to victims' families, it's clear that there is a deep reservoir of energy out there that could be channeled to become a real force for American renewal and transformation - and it's not being done. One senses that President Bush is intent on stapling his narrow, hard-right Sept. 10 agenda onto the Sept. 12 world, and that is his and our loss.
Imagine if tomorrow President Bush asked all Americans to turn down their home thermostats to 65 degrees so America would not be so much of a hostage to Middle East oil? Trust me, every American would turn down the thermostat to 65 degrees. Liberating us from the grip of OPEC would be our Victory Garden.
Imagine if the president announced a Manhattan Project to make us energy independent in a decade, on the basis of domestic oil, improved mileage standards and renewable resources, so we Americans, who are 5 percent of the world's population, don't continue hogging 25 percent of the world's energy? Imagine if the president called on every young person to consider enlisting in some form of service - the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, Coast Guard, Peace Corps, Teach For America, AmeriCorps, the F.B.I., the C.I.A.? People would enlist in droves. Imagine if the president called on every corporate chieftain to take a 10 percent pay cut, starting with himself, so fewer employees would have to be laid off? Plenty would do it.
I don't toss these ideas out for some patriotic high. There is a critical strategic point here: If we are going to be stomping around the world wiping out terrorist cells from Kabul to Manila, we'd better make sure that we are the best country, and the best global citizens, we can be. Otherwise, we are going to lose the rest of the world.
That means not just putting a fist in the face of the world's bad guys, but also offering a hand up for the good guys. That means doubling our foreign aid, intensifying our democracy promotion programs, increasing our contributions to world development banks (which do microlending to poor women) and lowering our trade barriers for textile and farm imports from the poorest countries. Imagine if the president called on every U.S. school to raise money to buy solar-powered light bulbs for every village in Africa that didn't have electricity so African kids could read at night? And let every one of those light bulbs carry an America flag decal on it, so when those kids grew up they would remember who lit up their nights?
The world's perception of us and our values matters even more now, and it is not going to be changed by an ad campaign, or by just winning in Afghanistan, as important as that is. It will be changed only by what we do - at home and abroad. This war can't end with only downtown Kabul on the mend, and not downtown Washington, Chicago and Los Angeles. Remember: the victims on Sept. 11 were a cross section of America - black, white, Hispanic, rich, poor and middle class - and that same cross section has to share in the healing. If we've learned anything from Sept. 11, it is that if you don't visit a bad neighborhood, it will visit you.
The first Greatest Generation won its stripes by defending America and its allies. This Greatest Generation has to win its stripes by making sure that the America that was passed onto us, and that now claims for itself the leadership of a global war against evil terrorists, is worthy of that task.
Mr. President, where do we enlist?
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/12/09/opinion/09FRIE.html?ex=1009199423&ei=1&en=8f6544182d2d282b